Troy R. Bennett (2) | BDN
By Michael Shepherd, BDN Employees •
October 22, 2018 9:04 am
Up to date: October 22, 2018 10:43 am
Good morning from Augusta. A newly launched poll supplies excellent news for Democrats in Maine’s 2018 elections, displaying Lawyer Common Janet Mills ahead of Republican Shawn Moody within the governor’s race and a tied contest in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.
It got here from Pan Atlantic Analysis, a Portland agency that has a strong monitor document in Maine races with a slight historic tilt towards Democrats, in accordance with FiveThirtyEight. As a result of the survey was completed two weeks in the past, it solely provides us a delayed take a look at the panorama.
Nevertheless, it buttresses the tendencies that we’ve noticed in different polls. The governor’s race appears to have turned in Mills’ course by the beginning of October, whereas U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin and Assistant Maine Home Majority Chief Jared Golden are operating a tight race. No surprises are seen looming for the opposite two incumbents in Maine congressional races.
Mills was up almost 9 proportion factors on Moody — the third straight poll displaying a comparable margin — with the 2 independents within the single digits. The Democratic nominee received 40.four % help of the 500 possible voters surveyed by Pan Atlantic plus four % extra who stated they’re leaning towards her — equaling 44.four % help to Moody’s 35.9 %.
Mills led Moody behind an edge in each of Maine’s congressional districts and a 21-percentage level benefit on the Republican amongst ladies. The margin between Mills and Moody was just like two polls principally taken in late September — one by State Treasurer Terry Hayes’ marketing campaign.
The independents — Hayes and marketing consultant Alan Caron — have been at 7.9 % and at 2.three %, respectively. Taken collectively, their tallies haven’t moved a lot because the first public poll of the race in August, which confirmed Mills and Moody tied.
Outcomes like this can result in elevated strain on Hayes and Caron to go away the race from Democrats who worry that they might act as spoilers for Mills in a contest that isn’t utilizing ranked-choice voting. Caron stated in a Portland Press Herald OpEd final yr that he would bow out if polls confirmed by mid-October that he couldn’t win.
We’re getting near that self-imposed deadline now, however there hasn’t been a mid-October poll of the race but. Unbiased Eliot Cutler polled as little as 11 % in early October earlier than surging to just about beat Gov. Paul LePage in 2010 as help fell from Democrat Libby Mitchell.
Hayes’ marketing campaign has been making an attempt to forged Moody as Mitchell 2.zero, together with her marketing campaign saying on Monday that the Republican “does not have a path to victory in this election” and that conservatives can be a part of a broader coalition to elect Hayes over Mills.
However it doesn’t appear to be Republicans are more likely to stray from their nominee. Moody strategist Brent Littlefield stated the poll doesn’t mirror inner poll numbers, although the marketing campaign hasn’t launched them.
This was the second current survey displaying Poliquin and Golden tied. Poliquin, a Republican, and Golden, a Democrat, have been nearly tied within the Pan Atlantic survey of 251 probably voters within the 2nd District. The incumbent obtained 37 % of help to the challenger’s 36.5 %. One other 9 % have been backing one of the 2 independents — Tiffany Bond and Will Hoar — with 17.5 % remaining undecided within the race.
This poll was taken earlier than one other one from Siena School and The New York Occasions final week that confirmed Poliquin and Golden tied at 41 % in a extra strong survey that used 500 possible voters. Nevertheless, the developments present that this might properly be Maine’s closest top-tier race.
The opposite two incumbents in Maine’s congressional races look protected to date. U.S. Sen. Angus King, an unbiased who caucuses with Democrats, received 57 % of help within the Pan Atlantic poll to Republican state Sen. Eric Brakey’s 29.6 % and Democrat Zak Ringelstein’s eight.2 % with simply 5 % undecided.
Brakey has launched current figures from an inner poll and Maine agency Important Insights that present King under a majority, however it seems to be unlikely that the Republican challenger can unseat the one-term senator particularly given ranked-choice voting. King additionally had a favorability score of 64 % within the Pan Atlantic poll — the very best of any member of Congress from Maine.
U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree, a Democrat from Maine’s 1st District, had 53.four % help to Republican Mark Holbrook‘s 29.4 percent and independent state Rep. Marty Grohman‘s 10.5 percent, casting doubt on the latter candidate’s bid to experience ranked-choice voting to the upset.
Senate debate recap
The talk season in Maine for U.S. Senate candidates is lastly underway. The three candidates for the seat that King gained in 2012 debated for the primary time Monday morning on the WGAN radio studio in Portland.
As they’ve throughout marketing campaign occasions, Ringelstein and Brakey attacked King from reverse ends of the political spectrum. At one level about 40 minutes into the dialogue, moderator Matt Gagnon requested Ringelstein if he needed to launch one other assault on King. He declined, providing a respite from an in any other case continuous collection of slaps on the incumbent.
Ringelstein, who has been endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America, continued his assault from the left, making an attempt to color the incumbent as a pawn for particular pursuits as a result of King has accepted marketing campaign contributions from company pursuits and voted for some of President Donald Trump’s nominees, together with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Brakey labored to cement his conservative bona fides, blasting King for opposing some Trump nominees and initiatives.
Aside from correcting what he described as factual errors from his opponents, King largely refused to interact with them. As an alternative, his responses took on extra the tenor of coverage statements and a primer on Senate course of.
Questions throughout Monday’s one-hour discussion board hit on immigration, overseas coverage, Supreme Courtroom Justice Brett Kavanaugh and the tax cuts enacted late final yr. Every candidate strengthened beforehand said positions, providing little in phrases of new positions.
Public polling on the race shows that King, who holds a large fundraising benefit, leads Brakey by double digits, with Ringelstein far behind. The race will probably be determined by ranked-choice voting, which signifies that if no candidate receives greater than 50 % of the vote within the first poll rely, the one who acquired the fewest votes can be eradicated and a second tally can be executed.
— A Republican lawmaker who is perhaps keen on a management publish disregarded Democrats’ name for him to surrender his re-election bid as a result of he has a legal document. Rep. Jeff Pierce of Dresden stated he was a “stupid kid” when he was arrested and pleaded responsible to felony drug costs and different counts in the course of the 1980s. Democrats on Friday issued a launch asking him and three different Republicans to desert their campaigns as a result of of previous legal fees. Pierce stated he would pray for the Democratic social gathering operatives who publicized his previous crimes. Two of the opposite three Republicans talked about within the launch had already stopped campaigning. The fourth, Winter Harbor fisherman Billy Bob Faulkingham, who was convicted of misdemeanor offenses, together with assault, legal mischief and driving beneath the affect between 2000 and 2009, is operating for a Home seat towards Winter Harbor Selectwoman Kylie Bragdon, a Democrat.
— A well-known identify is on the municipal poll in a Katahdin area city. Former U.S. Rep. Mike Michaud, a Democrat who represented Maine’s 2nd Congressional District for 12 years earlier than giving up the seat for an unsuccessful bid to unseat Republican Gov. Paul LePage in 2014, is operating for a three-year time period on the East Millinocket Board of Selectmen. Michaud, who had a lengthy tenure within the Maine Legislature earlier than profitable the 2nd District seat in 2002, is operating towards a political newcomer, Tom McDunnah.
— A Maine man is collaborating in a new remedy routine that gives hope for most cancers sufferers who haven’t had success with typical care choices. Westbrook resident Rob Leighton, who has colon most cancers, was “pretty much running out of options” when he agreed to participate within the Maine Most cancers Genome Initiative, which is spearheaded two years in the past by The Jackson Laboratory and supported by a greater than $eight million donation from the Harold Alfond Basis. He’s one of greater than 300 Maine sufferers who’re collaborating within the initiative, which goals to research the make-up of cancers cells particular to his physique as a means of pinpointing the distinctive mixture of genetic mutations in his tumors so they might then try to take advantage of them to kill his most cancers cells.
— A shuttered bowling alley the place Maine’s junior U.S. senator as soon as celebrated his birthday with a cake that initially learn “Happy birthday, Susie,” has been spared. The Bowling Bowl, a Brunswick fixture for 80 years, will reopen later this yr as Bolos, with new house owners and a Tex-Mex menu. King, who stated they acquired a deal on the cake so they only changed Susie’s identify with “Angus,” has bowled there for 30 years, as a league member and then substitute after being elected to the Senate interfered together with his bowling schedule by preserving him in Washington, D.C.
You don’t get to be an award-winning Maine banjournalist with out getting messy.
The BDN’s Troy R. Bennett proves that when once more together with his newest video on easy methods to make your Halloween pumpkin barf. He shares the not-so-secret components, but when chemistry just isn’t your factor, we might recommend a few widespread State Home actions — anybody up for a six-hour legislative listening to? — which may engender the identical response.
Observe to pumpkins: Don’t point out this exercise in your highschool yearbook until you could have a strong approach to clarify it at your affirmation listening to.
Right here is your soundtrack. — Robert Lengthy
At present’s Daily Brief was written by Michael Shepherd, Alex Acquisto and Robert Lengthy. Should you’re studying this on the BDN’s web site or have been forwarded it, click on right here to obtain Maine’s main publication on state politics by way of e mail on weekday mornings. Click on right here to subscribe to the BDN.