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Egypt, Algeria, Iran/Africa, Turkey’s Dead Body Problem, The Saudi View — plus Analysis – Dr. Rich Swier

EGYPT

The host of the sin’at al-mawt (Business of Dying) program on the Saudi-owned al-arabiyya TV channel interviewed an Egyptian Counter Terrorism skilled on 21 June.  The Egyptian visitor claimed that ISIS leader al-Baghdadi has just lately urged his supporters and cells to escalate their assaults.

On this context, the Egyptian CT skilled, in reply to a query as why it is taking so lengthy for Egypt to quell the terrorist uprising within the northern Sinai, also claimed that ISIS is inserting “highly trained operatives” into the Sinai.  These operatives are then supplemented and supported by the local terrorist infrastructures already in place.

COMMENT:

That answer still leaves me unhappy.  The inhabitants of the Sinai isn’t that great that they might regularly substitute the terrorists being killed by the Egyptian army with an countless supply of latest terrorists–even when ISIS is infiltrating a number of “highly trained” operatives into the Sinai at times.  My guess is that pro ISIS and Muslim Brotherhood varieties from amongst Egypt’s basic population are travelling to the Sinai, and then slipping away to hitch these lively terror cells.

ALGERIA

A brand new improvement in the Arab Spring 2.zero motion happening in Algeria is the Berber Amazigh individuals starting to boost their voices anew.  The Berbers, or Amazigh who converse an Hamitic language they name Tamazigh, are distantly associated to the Historic Egyptians, who additionally spoke an Hamitic language.  The Berber, or Amazigh, individuals reside throughout all of North Africa, in Libya, Algeria, Mali, Niger, Morocco, and Mauritania, with their largest concentration being in Algeria.  And, they are the world’s unique pre-Islamic inhabitants going again even earlier than Phoenician and Carthaginian occasions within the 2nd millennium B.C.

Through the years because the Islamic conquests of the seventh century they have all converted to Islam and have been subsumed politically by Arab-Islamic rulers, first by the Caliphate, and more just lately by the Arab dictatorships which have gained energy in North Africa with the withdrawal of European Colonialism.

Through the Algerian conflict for independence from France, the Amazigh began to dream of a governing system allowing them parity with Arabic-speaking Algerians, only to be squelched as soon as once more by Arab overlords.  But now, with the Arab Spring 2.zero in full swing, and the days of the Arab army dictatorship numbered, the Amazigh are as soon as again raising their voices not only for language parity, but for a extra decentralized state permitting them more autonomy.

IRAN/AFRICA

In response to the Saudi-owned al-arabiyya TV, Iran’s IRGC al-quds pressure is at present coaching “sleeper cells” in Africa with a view to attack Western targets in response to the U.S. boycott.  A few of the nations mentioned embrace Sudan, Chad, and Niger.

COMMENT:  This might be in keeping with Iran’s current policies of:

One, to push the envelope vis-à-vis the U.S. so far as they will, to create as much confrontation as they will without inflicting a full-scale U.S. army attack.  This is supposedly to shore up “patriotism” at house in mild of the Mullah’s sagging reputation.

Two:  Iran believes that it may avoid a direct assault by the U.S. through the use of “proxies” to do its soiled work:  The Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Hashd (Shi’a militia in Iraq that lobbed missiles near the U.S. embassy in Baghdad), and now “sleeper cells” in Africa are examples of those proxies.

TURKEY

On 21 June al-arabiyya TV reported that Turkey has despatched warships into the Aegean Sea “to protect” the two Oil/Fuel drilling ships they’ve working in waters the economic exploitation of which Cyprus claims was allotted to it by Worldwide agreement.

Egyptian media has reported that Egypt is considering boycotting Turkish items.  Widespread Egyptian TV speak show host Amru Adeeb has referred to as on Egypt and all of its Gulf allies to boycott Turkey over this and different issues.

In the meantime, there are indications that the Trump administration might aspect with the planet’s primary state sponsor of terrorism.  The U.S. Ambassador to Greece, Geoffrey Pyatt, in a 15 Might 2019 speech on the seventh annual Hellenic Air Drive Academy Air Energy Convention, made feedback that despatched shivers up and down all Greek spines.  This speech made the Greeks worry that the Trump administration will pressure Greece and Cyprus to accommodate Turkish drilling in Greek and Cypriot waters.

ANALYSIS:

Mr. Pyatt is an Obama appointee, so there’s the likelihood that he was exceeding his authority on this speech.  Nevertheless, I personally worry that siding with Turkey towards the Greeks can be of a bit not solely with the Trump administration’s current conduct, however with the complete West’s conduct vis-à-vis Turkey during the last several hundred years.

It was Trump, who final December invited Turkey to invade Northern Syria so it might rape, rob, and exterminate all Kurds, Christians, and Yazidis who didn’t need to be ethnic cleansed.  It was Trump who tried so exhausting to promote F-35s and different weaponry to the world’s prime state sponsor of terrorism.  So, why not let the Turks additionally abuse the Greeks?

The excuse, in fact, is to keep Turkey in NATO, which is, in fact, the exact reverse of what we must be doing.  As an alternative of being afraid that Russia may lure Turkey out of NATO, we must be encouraging, and celebrating the Russians pulling Turkey out of NATO.  Heck, we should always even pay the Russians to tug Turkey out of NATO–since we don’t seem to have both the center or the brains enough to push them out ourselves.

So long as Turkey is a member of NATO Russia is helpless to assault its 800-year worst enemy.  A Russian dismemberment of this terrorist-supporting state can be an enormous present not solely to the Greeks, but to the world as an entire.  However, so long as Turkey is a member of NATO, any Russian assault towards it will drive the USA and the rest of NATO to return to assistance from this terror state.

There’s a misguided view in Washington (on the part of both Republicans and Democrats) that Turkey’s current “rogue” conduct is totally the fault of its present leader Erdogan, and that when Erdogan is out of the picture, Turkey will return to its “normal” self as a loyal, peace-loving, member of NATO.  I hate to disillusion all the inside-the-beltway specialists, but Turkey’s present conduct is its regular self.  With the break-up of the Soviet Union, and the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in all the surrounding nations (as well as inside Turkey itself) turkey can’t help however return to its regular self as a vile, conceited, expansionist, jihadi state.

For example, in 1974 when the pre-Erdogan Turkey was a “good” NATO member, they invaded Greek inhabited Cyprus which needed to re-unite with fellow NATO member Greece.  The U.S. and the rest of NATO all seemed the other approach as Turkey raped, murdered, and ethnic cleansed its method throughout northern Cyprus–regardless of the fact that the Greeks had been dwelling there for 3,000 years, 2,000 years earlier than the Turks left their yurts in east central Asia.

The point is that seven many years of pretending to be a “good” NATO member can’t erase the seven centuries of Islamist Jihadi expansionism exhibited by Turkey’s Ottoman empire–and the lust to return to these glory days.  Moreover, Turkey has something “going for it” aside from Islamofascism, and that is an ideology of Turkish racism that makes Hitler’s Nazism appear to be boy scout stuff.

Yet, the West has all the time kowtowed to Turkey.  Trump’s predecessor, Obama, brazenly sought to aide Turkey in reconstituting the Ottoman Empire.  Through the 19th century Russia tried twice to dismember the Ottoman Empire in order to provide the Christians of the Middle East some respiration room, and to provide Constantinople again to the Greeks–in addition to to remove the fixed threats to its personal southern border.  But in each case Britain and different Western powers got here to the aide of the “sick man of Europe.”

In the 16th century when the Turks have been raping, murdering, and ethnic cleansing their approach across Catholic and Japanese Orthodox central Europe (even besieging Vienna in 1529), the protestant states of Western Europe sided with the Turks with no much less a person than Martin Luther saying that “the Sultan is far preferable to the Pope.”

The results of European inaction towards Turkish aggression, and pro-Turkish bias, is the checkerboard nature of the Balkans which led to the disastrous WWI (which in turn led to WWII), in addition to the  Balkan wars of the 1990s.

A SAUDI VIEW

Writing within the London-based, and Saudi-owned ash-sharq al-awsat newspaper, the Saudi journalist Mashari azh-Zhaayidi expressed a more optimistic view in his 24 June essay:  bi-itijaah seqout mihwar turkiyya  w-iiraan w-qatr (in the direction of the autumn of the Turkey, Iran, Qatar axis).  In this regard he pointed to symbolic “defeats” by every of those terrorism supporting states.

Qatar’s alleged “defeat” came with the victory of Common Muhammad wold al-Qhazawaani in the Mauritanian elections to succeed the previous president Muhammad wold  ‘Abd al-‘Aziz.  He also pointed to the fact that a couple members of the U.S. Congress have questioned Qatar’s influence in the USA.

Iran’s alleged “defeat” comes at the hand of the U.S. embargo and other pressures being positioned on the Iranian regime.

Turkey’s alleged defeat, in accordance with azh-Zhaayidi, came with Erdogan’s AKP candidate dropping the current election for mayor of Istanbul.

ANALYSIS

We might be clever to not breakout the Champaign bottles simply but.  Whereas the Mullahs in Iran are dropping fashionable help and are sitting on a deteriorating financial system, they’re still very capable of causing mayhem all over the world with their help of terrorism, and using proxies to do their dirty work.

As for Qatar’s “defeat,” the Qatar-supported opposition in Mauritania is threatening an Arab Spring sort of resistance.  And, while a couple members of the U.S. Congress might have just lately been made conscious of Qatar’s shady influence on our media and politics, most of their colleagues in each parties truly applaud Qatar’s influence.  So, don’t maintain your breath over the likelihood that anything may be accomplished about it.

Lastly, Erdogan’s defeat within the native Istanbul elections don’t represent a rejection of Erdogan’s aggressive overseas policy.  These outcomes don’t mirror the sensation of nearly all of Turks nationwide, nor do they even mirror the emotions of Istanbul voters on something aside from the deteriorating financial system in Turkey.  Turkey’s Islamofascism and overt racism are still intact, in Istanbul as well as within the countryside.

TURKEY’S DEAD BODY PROBLEM

For a lot of the past yr all we’ve heard from Turkey and their al-jazeera cheerleader is how Saudi Arabia ought to be severely punished for having killed one in every of their own (Saudi) citizens (Jamal Khashoqji) on Saudi territory (the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul).  Nicely, now, it so appears that Turkey has killed a Palestinian that they had thrown right into a Turkish jail in Istanbul.

The Turks declare that he was arrested for spying on behalf of the United Arab Emirates, and that he dedicated suicide.  The story out of Istanbul is that Zaki Mubarak was discovered hanging from the toilet door in his one-person cell in Silivri prison when guards arrived to provide him food.  The Turks stated that Zaki Mubarak was a 55-year previous retired major basic and a “senior intelligence official.”  But the lifeless man’s brother requested how can anybody who doesn’t converse Turkish be a spy in Turkey?  The family also soundly rejected the concept Zaki would commit suicide.  This view is supported by Turkey’s refusal to let them see the autopsy report.

COMMENT:   I feel that Zaki Mubarak actually was a spy, and right here is why:

Zaki Mubarak’s family has given numerous conflicting accounts as to exactly what Zaki Mubarak did, and why he was in Turkey.  His son stated he had gone to Turkey to search for a job.  A brother, named Zain ad-Din, stated that  Zaki had gone to Turkey to open up a restaurant.  Zain ad-Din, on another event stated that Zaki was a “respected lecturer.”  Another family member stated he had a PhD in political science, but his daughter stated he advised her to “study Chemistry and become a doctor like him.”

ANALYSIS:

The proven fact that Zaki Mubarak’s household had so many conflicting accounts of what it was that he did is a positive marker that he was in intelligence and needed his household to be stored in ignorance of that reality . . . for their very own security.

I have pieced together the next from the household’s scattered accounts, and from different sources:

Zaki Mubarak, a resident of Gaza (the place his household nonetheless lives), was an intelligence agent for the Ramallah-based Palestinian authority till 2007.  In 2007 Hamas gained the elections in Gaza and brutally cracked down on PA staff and supporters.

So, Zaki Mubarak (an outspoken critic of Hamas) then “escaped” to the UAE.  Once within the UAE, rumors have it that he attached with one Muhammad Dahlan, a Palestinian who now resides in the UAE.

The Muhammad Dahlan story is an interesting one that deserves to be summed up here.  He began out as a Fatah activist in his youth.  As such he was arrested by the Israelis a minimum of 11 occasions.  Throughout his multiple stays in Israeli prisons he turned fluent in Hebrew, and in addition grew into a extra “mature” world view, one that had no room for the radicalism of Hamas.

Resuming his Fatah connections, he turned a security wonk and at one time had 20,000 males underneath his command in Gaza.  In 2003, he was appointed as the Palestinian Minister of State for Security, although he was replaced the following yr resulting from PA political infighting.

With the Hamas take-over in 2007-08, Dahlan relocated to the west financial institution.  For the subsequent several years, Dahlan was in and out of PA politics, and out and in of the PA security apparatus.

Throughout his early profession in Fatah politics and safety matters, he was the darling of the Arab media.  He was young, vigorous, good-looking, and articulate, in distinction to the gerontocracy that dominates Palestinian politics.  Everyone saw him as the leader of the longer term for the Palestinians.  The Bush administration, and the Europeans, applied strain to have him appointed as the successor to PA leader Mahmoud Abbas.

Which will have been an excessive amount of for Abbas to handle.  To make an extended story brief, Dahlan soon fell out of favor in PA politics.  His Palestinian enemies accused him of aiding the Israeli Mossad in taking out a couple of Hamas operatives.  He was expelled from Fatah in 2011 when Abbas accused him of murdering former PA leader Yasser Arafat.  So, Dahlan hightailed it to the UAE where he turned employed as a safety and intelligence advisor.

All through his career he had been a vitriolic critic of Hamas, calling them nothing however a bunch of “murderers and theives.”  He had also shown a willingness to work with Israelis and People.  He’s stated to also be close to Egypt’s President as-Sisi, and I think that Dahlan might have played a key position in brining the UAE and Israel nearer together (even if solely underneath the table).

Which brings us again to Zaki Mubarak.  Like Muhammad Dahlan, Zaki Mubarak was an outspoken critic of Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood.  As a PA intelligence operative in Gaza (pre-Hamas days), he would have recognized Muhammad Dahlan very properly, in reality in all probability labored for him and/or with him.

Thus, it should not be shocking that two former PA intelligence and safety varieties, who share a hatred of Hamas, and hold the identical “moderate” political beliefs, and who each found exile in the UAE . . . I mean, it might be weird in the event that they didn’t hook up in their new digs.  I feel it protected to say, then, that Zaki Muhammad was a spy, and that he was working for and with Muhammad Dahlan on behalf of the UAE.

Subsequently, the Turkish accusation that Zaki Muhammad was in Turkey to spy on Arab Islamist radicals was in all probability true.  Turkey is the world’s number one state sponsor of terrorism, the godfather of ISIS, and the house of hundreds of Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood operatives.  So, if one needed to spy on Arab radicals, Turkey is an effective place to be–even if he didn’t converse Turkish.

Turkey’s ruling AKP social gathering is a clone of the Muslim Brotherhood, so it will only be pure for them to need to arrest anyone spying on their Arab terrorist shoppers.

But, what shouldn’t be natural is murdering captured spies when you’re holding them in jail.

Civilized nations just like the U.S. and Russia (and its USSR predecessor) all maintain/held captured spies for a attainable later trade–because you realize that ultimately your opponent will decide up a number of of your spies.  Civilized nations trade spies.  Turkey kills.

Now, with all of Turkey’s creating a storm over Saudi Arabia’s handling of the Khashoqji affair, and the Saudi’s refusal to show Khashoqji’s physique over for an post-mortem, guess who refused (for weeks) to turn Zaki Mubarak’s body over to his family so they might have it autopsied?  Guess who refused to send an autopsy report to the family?

And this, raises another question.  Where is the American media on all of this?  The U.S. and European media, and politicians, have all taken Turkey’s, and the Muslim Brotherhood’s aspect on the Muslim Brotherhood member Khashoqji’s murder (except President Trump), however are completely silent on Turkey’s dealing with of the Zaki Mubarak case.

Might the double commonplace in U.S. media protection probably should do with Khashoqji’s being a Muslim Brotherhood operative (and subsequently being a darling of Qatar and al-Jazeera), and Zaki Mubarak’s being an opponent of the Muslim Brotherhood (and subsequently one of many “bad” guys in the view of Qatar and al-Jazeera)?